All defined potential buyers × annual spend
Who could buy, and how many can you realistically serve?
A large market is only the starting point. Define your customers, narrow the opportunity and make the assumptions visible before you invest.
MARKET & CUSTOMERS
Your opportunity, in context.
Define who buys, why they buy and how much of the market you could serve. Keep evidence next to the assumptions you want to test.
Assumptions only · add your evidence1. Define your customer and offering
2. Size your annual revenue opportunity
Estimate annual revenue opportunity from buyers and spending. This is a bottom-up model, not verified market research or a sales forecast. No market data is fetched automatically.
Market size is potential customer spending. Market capitalisation is the stock-market value of a listed company; it is not demand for your offering.
Reachable buyers × annual spend
Assumed buyers, limited by your annual capacity × spend
Your share assumption implies 100 customers per year. This scenario uses 80 because capacity is lower. Revenue opportunity is not profit; acquisition costs, retention and delivery costs still need modelling.
What evidence supports these numbers?
Record geography, customer definition and time period. Cite the source for each input in your notes if they differ. Adding a citation does not verify it. Do not treat national GDP or a public company's market capitalisation as demand for your product.
3. Compare alternatives and identify risks
These are your notes. We do not automatically fetch competitor prices, demographics or industry benchmarks.
Next step: test willingness to pay with potential customers, check acquisition costs, and compare this scenario with your sales target. Nothing here changes your financial forecast automatically.
Free interactive example. Inputs stay in this page and reset when you leave; no account or AI request is needed.
How to use this example
Suppose 10,000 businesses could buy a service at $600 a year. Your reachable segment contains 2,000, and you assume 5% might buy. That means 100 customers, but capacity for 80 limits this scenario to $48,000 annual revenue. These figures illustrate the method; they are not industry research.
Choose evidence that matches your market
Start with official business counts, trade publications, customer interviews and your own sales evidence. Check geography, publication date, sector definition and whether the figure measures customers or spending. Broad economic indicators are context, not proof of demand.